March 30 2011

A Lack of Technological Innovations and Corresponding Stock Prices

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Corporations, especially in the tech sector, continue to borrow money today. Why not, with interest rates so low?  But, as the New York Times pointed out, they’re not spending their borrowed cash on business expansion.

For example, Microsoft (MSFT) recently announced a plan to borrow over $4 billion dollars.  It doesn’t need the money for research and development or even advertising.  Instead, Microsoft has adopted the radical idea of enhancing shareholder value, and will put the money towards stock repurchases and dividends. Another company that has converted to the philosophy of rewarding investors is Cisco, which has also initiated a dividend program. 

If these companies were utilities, none of this would seem surprising.  But these are technology stocks!  They’re supposed to be spending all their cash bringing new innovations to market so they can speedily grow their revenues. One clue is found in the SEC’s recent finding that the Dow’s 1,000 point mini-crash on May 6th this year had nothing to do with high-frequency trading.  The supposed trigger was an institutional order that was carried out essentially all at once when it would normally be executed over a period of hours.

This was  not a particularly large or unusual order.  As for why it had such a big impact on the market, two possibilities exist.  First, it may have been simply one of those anomalies that arise when markets become excessively complex.  High frequency trading and enormous amounts of data stimulate a less stable environment.  The other possibility is that somebody hacked into the system.  If so, we’ll probably never know whether the culprit was a teenaged prankster or a foreign espionage agent.

These events  are examples of vulnerabilities stemming from today’s data-heavy world.  Where more data once helped us solve problems, now it increasingly causes more of them.  Information technology may be nearing the limits of its usefulness.

Once upon a time, IT optionbit was a hot new tool.  It gave scientists easy access to large amounts of data that presumably could help them discover new insights – or at least speed up their work. However, while computers will continue to serve that role, their technology is maturing.  Computers can deal with more data today than they could six years ago, but that’s only because today’s computers use more chips.  Chip speeds have hit a wall and are no longer increasing.

What’s more, far from producing new breakthroughs at a faster pace, science is slowing down.  Scientific progress is becoming scientific stasis.  Wikipedia (today’s repository of popular knowledge) refers to the cracking of the human genome in 2003 as, “an important step in the development of medicines,” yet no new medicines have actually been developed because of it.  We were particularly alarmed by a recent article in Nature which pointed out that the best treatment for Parkinson’s disease today is still L-DOPA, which was introduced in 1960.  50 years of research.  Progress: none.

To be fair, there are a number of researchers who may be on the brink of breakthroughs in treating Parkinson’s disease.  But these breakthroughs are mainly the result of human intuition.  They are occurring in spite of rather than because of information technology. Alan Lightman, in his book Discoveries:  Great Breakthroughs in 20th Century Science, catalogs the 22 top scientific discoveries of the past 100 years.  The most recent was made in 1978, a time when desktop computers were rare and not very powerful.

Don’t get me wrong.  My office could not function without computers.  As I write this (on a computer), I’m sitting before a bank of four monitors displaying the up-to-the-second data on the markets.  Yet, I have to confess that the best research I do isn’t done online.  My best ideas come from following up on intuitive insights and my own curiosity.

To give you another example… 20 years ago or so I used to lunch regularly with a highly successful investor named Roy Neuberger.  He was more than 80 years old at the time (he’s over 100 now).  Mr. Neuberger was an extraordinary man who certainly loved computers, even back in the 1980s, and used them to chart stocks.  At the time, the leading stocks included Coca Cola (KO) and Wal-Mart (WMT).  Yet for some reason, he disliked both those stocks intensely.  He never went long on them, and shorted them whenever he sensed a good opportunity.  Both these stocks remained in powerful uptrends for many years.  Yet Neuberger consistently made money by selling them short.  His instincts were better than any computer could ever generate.

At this point, you may be asking what this has to do with binary option investing.  Well, my point is that technology – based as it is on information technology – is no longer a growth industry.  Technology shares on average are priced at a fraction of their 2000 highs.  The fact that technology companies aren’t spending money on R&D tells you they have little hope of making new innovations.

The silver lining, however, is that eztrader tech stocks are great companies in today’s market because they are becoming more like utilities.  They will still enjoy some growth, as technology spreads around the world, though it will be slower than in the past.  Even better, the total returns (growth + dividends) from many tech companies will be rather healthy.

Recently we surveyed nine of the leading companies in semiconductors and related technology.  Their average dividend yield is about 2.7% – pretty good now that interest rates are very low.  But what really drew our attention was that their average free cash flow yield (the highest yield they could theoretically afford to pay) is 8.5%.  That leaves a lot of room for dividends to increase.  What’s more, while these companies’ earnings grew an average of 4% during the past five years, their dividend growth averaged 22%.

September 11 2010

Microsoft XBox 360 And The Kinect

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Every year, video game engineering increasingly resembles the fanciful ideas found in a Star Trek episode. In 2006, Nintendo released the Wii, which was the very first residence video game console based around motion sensitive controls and featured games that one could directly interact with utilizing physical movements, as opposed to strictly pressing buttons.

The Wii proved wildly well-known, outselling its competitors, the PS3 and Xbox 360, and in December 2009, broke the record for best-selling console in a single month inside the United States. It was so successful in truth, that the PS3 practically immediately tried to implement some degree of motion sensitive control in its program, introducing the Six-axis controller. The Wii created video games a a lot more physical activity than they had ever been perceived as and appealed to a wide demographic including people who were specifically non-gamers. It’s easy, fun interactivity produced it appealing to all sorts, not just hardcore gamers.

On November 4th, 2010, however, Microsoft intends to up the ante inside a big way by releasing the Microsoft Kinect. The Xbox 360 Kinect is webcam style peripheral that detects motion, gestures, facial expressions, and voice commands, using this as the medium via which players interact with games. Whereas the Wii still utilized a controller whose presence and physical orientation had been detected by the system, the Xbox Kinect requires no controller whatsoever. The gamer’s physical self is detected utilizing an RGB camera and depth sensor capable of three dimensional motion capture, so that no controller is necessary to interact with the method. One’s physical movements are read and interpreted directly by the game.

The Kinect is capable of simultaneously tracking up to six separate people, having a feature extraction of 20 joints or 48 skeletal points per player, and depending on their distance from the sensor bar, is in a position to interpret the movements of individual fingers. The sensor bar itself is seated atop a motorized pivot that can tilt 27 degrees up or down, and has an angular field of view of 57 degrees. Between the motion capture capabilities and also the sensor bar’s ability to physically orient itself, the method is even in a position to track and follow a moving person throughout applications such as video chat via Xbox Live or Windows Live Messenger.

Where the Wii was merely a glimpse into what residence consoles were really capable of, the Kinect firmly commits itself to that path and aims to revolutionize not only the way games are played, but what genuinely defines a game. So innovative is the technology in fact, that Microsoft intends for this to function almost as the release of an entirely new console, which doesn’t seem unfair given that the Kinect will most certainly make the Xbox 360 function as new. Thus far, 16 launch titles have been announced, having a myriad a lot more no doubt on the way.

Between the Kinect, and similarly exciting systems in development for the Playstation 3 – additionally to whatever innovations 3rd party software developers are able to wring out of the technology – the future of gaming promises to be something genuinely out of science fiction.

September 11 2010

The Supercharged Microsoft XBox 360

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Every year, video game engineering increasingly resembles the fanciful ideas found in a Star Trek episode. In 2006, Nintendo released the Wii, which was the very first residence video game console based around motion sensitive controls and featured games that one could directly interact with utilizing physical movements, as opposed to strictly pressing buttons.

The Wii proved wildly well-known, outselling its competitors, the PS3 and Xbox 360, and in December 2009, broke the record for best-selling console in a single month inside the United States. It was so successful in truth, that the PS3 practically immediately tried to implement some degree of motion sensitive control in its program, introducing the Six-axis controller. The Wii created video games a a lot more physical activity than they had ever been perceived as and appealed to a wide demographic including people who were specifically non-gamers. It’s easy, fun interactivity produced it appealing to all sorts, not just hardcore gamers.

On November 4th, 2010, however, Microsoft intends to up the ante inside a big way by releasing the Microsoft Kinect. The Xbox 360 Kinect is webcam style peripheral that detects motion, gestures, facial expressions, and voice commands, using this as the medium via which players interact with games. Whereas the Wii still utilized a controller whose presence and physical orientation had been detected by the system, the Xbox Kinect requires no controller whatsoever. The gamer’s physical self is detected utilizing an RGB camera and depth sensor capable of three dimensional motion capture, so that no controller is necessary to interact with the method. One’s physical movements are read and interpreted directly by the game.

The Kinect is capable of simultaneously tracking up to six separate people, having a feature extraction of 20 joints or 48 skeletal points per player, and depending on their distance from the sensor bar, is in a position to interpret the movements of individual fingers. The sensor bar itself is seated atop a motorized pivot that can tilt 27 degrees up or down, and has an angular field of view of 57 degrees. Between the motion capture capabilities and also the sensor bar’s ability to physically orient itself, the method is even in a position to track and follow a moving person throughout applications such as video chat via Xbox Live or Windows Live Messenger.

Where the Wii was merely a glimpse into what residence consoles were really capable of, the Kinect firmly commits itself to that path and aims to revolutionize not only the way games are played, but what genuinely defines a game. So innovative is the technology in fact, that Microsoft intends for this to function almost as the release of an entirely new console, which doesn’t seem unfair given that the Kinect will most certainly make the Xbox 360 function as new. Thus far, 16 launch titles have been announced, having a myriad a lot more no doubt on the way.

Between the Kinect, and similarly exciting systems in development for the Playstation 3 – additionally to whatever innovations 3rd party software developers are able to wring out of the technology – the future of gaming promises to be something genuinely out of science fiction.

July 27 2010

Xbox 360 Bringing Science Fiction To Life

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Xbox 360 games offer some of probably the most incredibly immersive experiences anywhere, online or off. With blockbuster titles like Halo, Fallout, Call of Duty, and Panzer General: Allied Assault, it’s difficult to find out what else could possibly increase gameplay any a lot more than the lengthy way that it is already appear. Following all, it wasn’t but several years ago that clunky old-school controllers were still getting employed. Today the user interface has enhanced noticeably, with on-board accelerometers to process spatial data for human kinetics in gaming. But one thing about the horizon might be one of the most revolutionary thing to hit videogaming at house in our time.

Xbox 360 games may be closely matched to Xbox 360 Components for probably the most seamless experience of genuinely immersive gameplay. But what if there were no need for any Xbox 360 add-ons save a single? A single über-accessory to replace them all? Extended the stuff of science fiction and comic books, this latest of Xbox 360 accessories would also be the last. It would be the only factor needed to play all the Xbox 360 games made from then on.

Never heard of it? That is simply because it was only recently announced by Microsoft. It’s a digital eye of sorts that may obliterate the need for physical controllers, hardware that is held in one’s hand. This new soon-to-come digital eye will sense player actions in room, so hand-held controllers with built-in accelerometers will no longer be necessary. This newest advance in gaming technology is due out inside of the subsequent year or two, and will be mounted separately from the console. But all user movement data will probably be provided towards the console just exactly the same. Try to picture playing videogames with nothing more than your own entire body and system actions!

This veritable magic eye that Microsoft may be creating will even track eye actions to alter point-of-view in the first-person shooter. Envision Halo or Call of Duty or Medal of Honor without having pesky controllers but with instead a light gun and your own body and your own eyes! When you turn correct the screenshot reveals scenery to your right side, and as you turn left the panorama shifts with you!

So whilst today’s Xbox 360 games are very sophisticated, the Xbox components to come will require software that rethinks the whole notion of onscreen and off. Hardware and software program exist in a symbiotic relationship, and it will probably be intriguing to find out what transpires following now that the hardware has taken a quantum leap forward!

July 25 2010

Xbox 360 Bringing Science Fiction To Life

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An Xbox 360 wireless Headset really adds for the immersive gaming experience offered by the many titles which accept such devices. wireless headsets are nearly essential in multiplayer video games, especially on the internet. In the end, who’s planning to take keyboard taunts seriously? (And who would want to kind whilst busy fighting for their onscreen lives?)

No, an Xbox 360 wireless headset can be a must-have accessory that’s really not an accessory in any way, in case you think of it. There’s really no method to enjoy many of today’s complex, superior game titles without having a headset, with wirelessness making for elevated convenience. Indeed, wireless could be the solution to go, and you might too add in an Xbox 360 wireless Controller. Specifically with the incredible games accessible now that include human kinetics into the gameplay itself, it’s actually almost a necessity for freedom of movement and range of motion.

In the wireless headset department, nonetheless, Turtle Beach’s Ear Force line has matured into a solid option, with its X4 model featuring improved sound quality, especially with digital optical connections. It is a high-end pair of headphones, rivaling the expense of the Xbox console itself, but it is extremely popular and highly rated. The Ear Force X4 is created up with the headset, transmitter, power cable, a cable for that Xbox controller, and a digital optical audio cable. It runs on two triple-A batteries that happen to be usefully integrated. There are inputs on the transmitter digital optical audio as well as outputs to your audio-visual receiver (or just the Television). This particular Xbox 360 wireless headset is heavy and bulky in comparison to previously versions in the series, but it is the kind of thing that’s create somewhere and left alone, so size shouldn’t prove being as well very much of an issue. The headphones themselves are similar to earlier designs of Ear Force, with internal springs that pinch your head, but they do seem a lot more comfy in standard, nevertheless. The ear-cups are covered in fabric this time, which absorbs sweat – which would be pretty awesome if the covers have been replaceable! Otherwise, they’re not as easy to wipe clean as regular vinyl, for which you really don’t will need to be concerned about water soaking in. Battery life is planning to become a concern with anything at all wireless, however, so maintain a constant supply handy for individuals weekend strength sessions! It will be bad adequate for the communications to be interrupted mid-game, but with wireless controllers you could just finish your game proper there should you operate out of juice!

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